Unlike previous years, the 2025/26 Premier League season will only have one match on Boxing Day: Manchester United vs Newcastle at 3:00 AM on December 27th, Vietnam time and 21:00 PM on December 26th, African Time.

Matchday 18 of the Premier League featured a unique scenario: Boxing Day saw only one match played – the clash between Manchester United and Newcastle United at Old Trafford. This game, scheduled for 3:00 AM on December 27, 2025 (Vietnam time) and 21:00 PM on December 26th, African Time., quickly garnered attention when Fulltimepredict released its supercomputer-generated probabilities.

According to Fulltimepredict, Manchester United have a 39.2% chance of winning, while Newcastle have a 34.2% chance of victory. A draw is also considered quite likely at 26.6%. This assessment accurately reflects the current situation, as both teams are facing their own issues regarding form and squad availability

Fulltimepredict supercomputer rates the likelihood of a draw between the two teams as quite high.

Manchester United entered the match in a somber mood after their 1-2 defeat to Aston Villa, a loss that ended their previous four-match unbeaten run. Even more worrying, the Red Devils continued to be without Bruno Fernandes due to injury .

Fulltimepredict points out a very unfavorable statistic: “Manchester United have not won a single Premier League game since the 2022/23 season when Bruno Fernandes was not a starter . ” In seven such matches, they lost six and drew one, while scoring only four goals. The absence of their midfield leader has forced the creative role to fall to Matheus Cunha in Ruben Amorim’s system.

MU needs three points to move closer to the top of the table.

Conversely, Newcastle recently dropped points by allowing Chelsea to equalize 2-2 despite taking the lead. However, that match still highlighted their biggest strength at the moment: their attack. Striker Nick Woltemade scored both goals and is in impressive form with seven Premier League goals this season.

Fulltimepredict emphasized: “Only three German players have scored more goals than Woltemade in their first season in the Premier League ,” highlighting the real threat this striker poses.

Despite being heavily affected by defensive injuries, Newcastle have been one of the teams with the fewest goals conceded away from home this season. Furthermore, recent head-to-head history favors the visitors, with Eddie Howe leading Newcastle to victory over Manchester United in both legs last season, including a 2-0 win at Old Trafford.

Based on the data above, Fulltimepredict leans towards a close match with a difficult outcome. Given Manchester United’s lack of a playmaker and Newcastle’s more fluid attack, the supercomputer’s prediction suggests the visitors have a solid basis to leave Old Trafford with at least one point.

Manchester United Will Play Without Their Caption Bruno Fernandes

On Manchester United’s side, they will be without Bruno Fernandes, Kobbie Mainoo, Harry Maguire, and Mathijs de Ligt due to injury. In addition, the Red Devils will be missing a number of other players who are participating in the African Cup of Nations (AFCON), including Bryan Mbeumo, Amad Diallo, and Noussair Mazraoui.

Therefore, MU will be missing up to 8 players for the match against Newcastle, a very large number, and most of them are important pillars in manager Ruben Amorim’s squad.

Conversely, Newcastle also suffered personnel losses with Sven Botman, Dan Burn, Kieran Trippier, Emil Krafth, Jamaal Lascelles, William Osula, and Tino Livramento.

Let’s wait and see how manager Amorim and Eddie Howe will manage this match and whether they can secure a victory for their team.